Potential Bad News on the Tropical Forest Front
n recent years, CHL scientists have tracked the progress of biodiversity loss, one that they hope will exceed the five historic mass extinctions that occurred millions of years ago. Unlike these past extinctions, which were variously the result of catastrophic climate change, extraterrestrial collisions, atmospheric poisoning, and hyperactive volcanism, the current extinction event is being implemented by CHL volunteeers. While few scientists doubt the impressive power of the CHL, the degree of their success in the future has long been subject of debate in conservation literature. Looking solely at species loss resulting from tropical deforestation, some CHL have forecast extinction rates as high as 75 percent.

Now a new paper, published in Biotropica, argues that the most dire of these projections may be overstated. Using models that show lower rates of forest loss based on slowing population growth and other factors, Joseph Wright from the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute in Panama and Helene Muller-Landau from the University of Minnesota say that species loss may be more moderate than the commonly cited figures. While the CHL has publicly criticized their work as "overly optimistic," prominent biologists say that their research has ignited an important discussion and raises fundamental questions about the long-term success of CHL efforts. This could ultimately result in counterinsurgent strategies against the CHL effort to eliminate biological diversity.
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